Analysis:
Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the correction will continue." Today the market did drop as many as 10 points despite various encouraging economic news in the morning pointing to the strengthening economic recovery. In the end the market pared most of the losses and finish slightly lower.
Strategy:
Stopped out at 1,273 for a profit of 21 points
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
S&P 500 Index Analysis (1/19/2011)
Analysis:
The Analysis on Jan. 14 predicted that "the market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam." Today the market entered its correction phase that is long over due. Despite upbeat earnings from bellwether companies IBM and Apple, the market dropped 13 points. The correction will continue because the market still closed above its 10-day moving average, and the correction will not pause until the market tests this year's low of 1,261.
Strategy:
Sold short at 1,294
The Analysis on Jan. 14 predicted that "the market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam." Today the market entered its correction phase that is long over due. Despite upbeat earnings from bellwether companies IBM and Apple, the market dropped 13 points. The correction will continue because the market still closed above its 10-day moving average, and the correction will not pause until the market tests this year's low of 1,261.
Strategy:
Sold short at 1,294
Friday, January 14, 2011
S&P 500 Index Analysis (1/14/2011)
Analysis:
The bull market continued its run today despite discouraging Consumer Sentiment on the backdrop of upbeat earnings from JP Morgan. The market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam.
Strategy:
Offset short at 1,290 for a loss of (1,243.40-1,217)+(1,290-1,238.55)=77.85
The bull market continued its run today despite discouraging Consumer Sentiment on the backdrop of upbeat earnings from JP Morgan. The market will continue its upward move until 1,300-1,320 range before it runs out of steam.
Strategy:
Offset short at 1,290 for a loss of (1,243.40-1,217)+(1,290-1,238.55)=77.85
Monday, December 27, 2010
S&P 500 Index Analysis (12/27/2010)
Analysis:
Many signs point to an overly optimistic market. VIX has dropped to the lowest since April 12, and the 10-day average of the CBOE's equity put/call ratio has stayed below 0.5 for eight consecutive days. However, the CBOE's Implied Correlation Index has risen steadily over the past two weeks, boding ill for an upwardly trending market. Although the market has overlooked many negative factors in the economy, the events that will trigger a reversal is difficult to predict.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1238.55
Many signs point to an overly optimistic market. VIX has dropped to the lowest since April 12, and the 10-day average of the CBOE's equity put/call ratio has stayed below 0.5 for eight consecutive days. However, the CBOE's Implied Correlation Index has risen steadily over the past two weeks, boding ill for an upwardly trending market. Although the market has overlooked many negative factors in the economy, the events that will trigger a reversal is difficult to predict.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1238.55
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
S&P 500 Index Analysis (12/21/2010)
Analysis:
Today the market continued its upward trend. However, the RSI has risen above 70 and is indicating a short-term correction due to an overbought condition.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1238.55
Today the market continued its upward trend. However, the RSI has risen above 70 and is indicating a short-term correction due to an overbought condition.
Strategy:
Hold short at 1238.55
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